E57 – Beating the Bookies with their own Numbers
Season 1, Ep. 57
Episode 57 – Lisandro Kaunitz and Javier Kreiner
Lisandro and Javier discuss a research paper they wrote about the online sports betting market.
They designed a strategy to beat bookmakers with their own numbers. The strategy proved profitable in a 10-year historical simulation using closing odds, a 6-month historical simulation using minute to minute odds, and a 5-month period during which they staked real money with the bookmakers (the code, data and models are publicly available). They also describe their betting experience to illustrate how the sports gambling industry compensates these market inefficiencies with discriminatory practices against successful clients.
Research Paper – https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.02824
Season 3 is proudly sponsored by Betfair Pty Limited.
Betfair operates a betting exchange and is licensed in the Northern Territory, Australia.
Join by clicking here : https://www.betfair.com.au/extensions/redir/BOBPOD/2 and entering code BOBPOD.
The Betfair exchange isn’t a house that sets the odds, it’s betting at it’s purest. One punters opinion against another’s. Play the game within the game and join today Residents of Australia can join Betfair by visiting betfair.com.au and support this podcast by using promo code BOBPOD.